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	<title>Westwood Capital &#187; Market Commentary</title>
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	<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com</link>
	<description>An investment bank delivering creative solutions to clients with complex financial needs.</description>
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		<title>Westwood Capital AHFCABS Update – Q2 2026</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2026/04/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-%e2%80%93-q2-2026/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2026/04/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-%e2%80%93-q2-2026/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Apr 2026 18:57:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=729</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The OBBA&#8217;s permanent expansion of 9% LIHTC allocations and reduction of the PAB bond test from 50% to 25% has changed the math on 4% LIHTC deals materially and is generating the largest pipeline of 4% credit preservation deals we&#8217;ve seen.  As you know, under the new test, the PAB volume cap is now the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[The OBBA&#8217;s permanent expansion of 9% LIHTC allocations and reduction of the PAB bond test from 50% to 25% has changed the math on 4% LIHTC deals materially and is generating the largest pipeline of 4% credit preservation deals we&#8217;ve seen.  As you know, under the new test, the PAB volume cap is now the binding constraint on production — and the optimal capital stack makes use of Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive ABS (AHFCABS) proceeds as developer equity to fill the gap at the lowest possible cost, without encumbering assets.  The collateral quality picture for well-structured AHFCABS transactions has rarely been stronger. <br /><br />

 In February, our Executive Chairman published an analysis through Cornell Law School documenting that AHFCABS enables nearly 28% more affordable housing units over a 30-year horizon and increases the fiscal multiplier on LIHTC expenditures by over 17%.  For developers, the implication is direct: it is the most capital-efficient, non-dilutive way to fund both pipeline growth and QAP competitiveness.  Here’s a link to the piece. 
 For Q4 2026 issuances we&#8217;re targeting mid to high-6s/low-7s all-in coupon at Moody&#8217;s A2 — roughly a 265-275bp spread over the 10-year Treasury.  For portfolios with significant HAP concentration currently financed with taxable or BB-rated paper, the spread differential is material.  <br /><br />

 If you&#8217;re evaluating balance sheet optimization, a portfolio recapitalization, or permanent financing for a stabilized asset pool, we&#8217;d welcome a conversation. Westwood has executed over 75% of the total AHFCABS volume placed, since we developed the structure in 2019. As a reminder, the structure requires no encumbrance of properties and no pledge of GP interests; your existing HUD and LP agreements are fully preserved. <br /><br />
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Daniel Alpert presents ‘Gaining Leverage Over the U.S. Housing Shortage: How the Private Markets are Enhancing U.S. Fiscal Policy to Expand Affordable Housing’ at NH&amp;RA Annual Meeting</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2026/02/daniel-alpert-presents-%e2%80%98gaining-leverage-over-the-u-s-housing-shortage-how-the-private-markets-are-enhancing-u-s-fiscal-policy-to-expand-affordable-housing%e2%80%99-at-nhra-annual-meeting/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2026/02/daniel-alpert-presents-%e2%80%98gaining-leverage-over-the-u-s-housing-shortage-how-the-private-markets-are-enhancing-u-s-fiscal-policy-to-expand-affordable-housing%e2%80%99-at-nhra-annual-meeting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2026 16:58:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kmanna</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=777</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Westwood Capital’s Executive Chairman, Daniel Alpert, had the pleasure of being the keynote speaker for “Gaining Leverage Over the U.S. Housing Shortage: How the Private Markets are Enhancing U.S. Fiscal Policy to Expand Affordable Housing” at the developers luncheon presentation and Q&#038;A at the National Housing &#038; Rehabilitation Association (NH&#038;RA) Annual Meeting. Mr. Alpert shared [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Westwood Capital’s Executive Chairman, Daniel Alpert, had the pleasure of being the keynote speaker for “Gaining Leverage Over the U.S. Housing Shortage: How the Private Markets are Enhancing U.S. Fiscal Policy to Expand Affordable Housing”  at the developers luncheon presentation and Q&#038;A at the National Housing &#038; Rehabilitation Association (NH&#038;RA)  Annual Meeting.  Mr. Alpert shared his thoughts and views on the industry as well as his corresponding whitepaper published by Cornell Law School.  A copy of the whitepaper can be viewed <a href="http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Gaining-Leverage-over-the-US-Housing-Shortage-Alpert-Cornell-Law.pdf">here</a>.]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Westwood Capital AHFCABS Update &#8211; Q1 2026</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2026/01/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-q1-2026/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2026/01/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-q1-2026/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2026 16:15:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kmanna</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=697</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Legislative and regulatory shifts over the last several quarters have materially strengthened the economics of LIHTC development, with benefits accruing disproportionately to scaled, well‑capitalized sponsors. In addition to bipartisan momentum toward the largest expansion of LIHTC authority in roughly 25 years, Congress and the administration have protected and modestly increased core rental assistance, bolstering underwriting [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Legislative and regulatory shifts over the last several quarters have materially strengthened the economics of LIHTC development, with benefits accruing disproportionately to scaled, well‑capitalized sponsors. In addition to bipartisan momentum toward the largest expansion of LIHTC authority in roughly 25 years, Congress and the administration have protected and modestly increased core rental assistance, bolstering underwriting assumptions around contract rents, operating stability, and refinance or recapitalization options.<br /><br />

Furthermore, higher credit volume, improved clarity around income averaging and basis boosts, and state‑level efforts to layer soft debt have together raised achievable valuations for stabilized LIHTC assets and increased the equity value of general partner positions. These policy developments, combined with persistent investor demand for long‑dated affordable housing cash flows, have translated into more competitive pricing in GP interest sales. Yet funding gaps have widened with lower pricing by LPs for tax credits; demands for more developer skin in 9% deals; and, in 4% deals, an emerging need for new low-cost capital sources in order to take full advantage of reduced tax-exempt bond financing levels. <br /><br />

This policy and market backdrop continues to support strong demand for Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset Backed Securities (AHFCABS) backed by diversified general partner cash flows from LIHTC and Section 8 portfolios, particularly where sponsors can demonstrate conservative senior leverage and competent asset management.  In recent AHFCABS executions, buyside and rating agency analysts have responded to policy uncertainty by sharpening their distinctions between resilient cash‑flow profiles and those more exposed to market rent volatility. Portfolios with long‑term project‑based HAP contracts, deep affordability, and/or low senior debt burdens are often treated as relative safe havens, and investor appetite for these structures has continued to outstrip supply—supporting relatively tight spreads for AHFCABS paper even through episodes of market volatility.  Indeed, this paper is increasingly viewed as a way to gain investment‑grade exposure to essential‑service housing, with performance less correlated to discretionary sectors and more closely tied to enduring policy and demographic needs. Moreover, as credit quality in other fixed income bond issuance deteriorates with a sluggish economy, the demand for AHFCABS strengthens due to affordable housing’s inherent acyclical/countercyclical characteristics.  <br /><br />

 
Against this favorable structural landscape, the near‑term path of the 10‑year U.S. Treasury is admittedly clouded by geopolitical risk, global growth concerns, and periodic flare‑ups in the Persian Gulf that can transmit quickly through energy prices and inflation expectations. That said, Westwood’s prior forecasts have anticipated a post‑inflation peak environment in which the 10‑year gravitates toward a 3.50–3.75 range as core inflation normalizes and central banks gradually complete their tightening‑to‑easing transition. In such a scenario, and assuming geopolitical shocks remain episodic rather than structural, A2‑rated AHFCABS paper priced at roughly 2.75 over the 10‑year would translate into mid‑6 percent coupons, a highly attractive cost of capital for sponsors effectively borrowing against their own equity via investment‑grade notes.<br /><br /> 


Westwood Capital originated AHFCABS structure in 2019 and has since led over $3.5 billion of issuance, with a market share exceeding 70% in this specialized segment. In the current environment—where affordable housing remains a policy imperative, investor demand for high‑quality LIHTC and Section 8 exposure remains robust, and the 10‑year appears biased toward a lower equilibrium over the next several quarters—now is a particularly opportune time to explore an AHFCABS program backed by your GP interests. Westwood would welcome the opportunity to discuss how such a structure can help you raise flexible, low‑cost capital for acquisitions, new development equity, LP buyouts, or broader corporate objectives, while positioning your platform to thrive amid evolving policy and macroeconomic conditions. <br /><br />

 
For further information on AHFCABS, please see this product description and the white paper “Gaining Leverage over the U.S. Housing Shortage,” authored by our Executive Chairman, Daniel Alpert, which together provide a more detailed description of the structure, policy context, and use cases for this form of CRE‑CLO financing. ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Westwood Capital Q3 2025 – Pre-AHF Live 2025 Update</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2025/07/westwood-capital-q3-2025-%e2%80%93-pre-ahf-live-2025-update/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2025/07/westwood-capital-q3-2025-%e2%80%93-pre-ahf-live-2025-update/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2025 15:25:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kmanna</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=703</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2025 is shaping up to be Westwood Capital’s biggest year for Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive CLO transaction (AHFFC-ABS) structuring and placement, a debt capital markets product we both created and in which we continue to hold, by far, the largest market share. As we approach the 2025 AHF Live conference, we invite developers seeking [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[2025 is shaping up to be Westwood Capital’s biggest year for Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive CLO transaction (AHFFC-ABS) structuring and placement, a debt capital markets product we both created and in which we continue to hold, by far, the largest market share. As we approach the 2025 AHF Live conference, we invite developers seeking a source of truly low-cost real estate acquisition and development capital to reach out to us to arrange a brief chat during the conference.<br /><br /> 

As widely expected, on October 29 the Federal Open Market Committee FMOC cut the Federal Funds Rate by another 25bps, bringing the new target range down to 3.75%-4.00% and while “not a foregone conclusion” according to Chairman Powell’s October 29 statement, the general expectation among economists and capital markets is for a further rate cut in 2025 (for a possible total cut of 75bps in 2025) and another 25bp cut in 2026, indicating a projected Target Fed Funds Rate of between 3.25%-3.50% by the end of this cutting cycle (assuming the U.S. economy avoids a protracted slump).<br /><br /> 

Given that A2-rated AHFFC-ABS typically price at spreads between 2.75%-3.00% over the U.S. 10 Year treasury, this implies that issuance in Q2-Q4 2026 would be expected to price at between 100-125bps lower than those sold in Q1-Q3 2025.  With the return of some steepness to the yield curve, there could be some additional cost benefit to transactions structured with less than a 10-year average life. <br /><br />

It is therefore quite possible that parties issuing AHFFC-ABS in Q2-Q3 2026 could be borrowing at effective rates (excluding transaction costs) somewhere in the 6.00%-6.50% range.  Considering that developers are essentially borrowing against their own equity using this structure, this product represents a highly attractive alternative to both equity and ordinary mezzanine debt. <br /><br /> 

Notwithstanding – and perhaps because of – a great deal of uncertainty about continuing U.S. economic growth, investor appetite for AHFFC-ABS has only increased, with several new investors seeking to purchase this paper in 2025.  We take this as a firm indication of the capital markets’ high confidence that LIHTC and Section 8 supported multifamily development will continue to be a strong and safe investment.<br /><br /> 

Having structured and placed fifteen AHFFC-ABS transactions representing approximately $3 billion of total originations since we developed the structure in 2019, Westwood remains not only the market leader in issuance, but the most creative and knowledgeable in the space as well.   ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Westwood Capital AHFCABS &#8211; Update Q2 2025</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2025/04/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-q2-2025/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2025/04/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-q2-2025/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2025 18:36:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=707</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Notwithstanding a delay in the previously expected pace of Fed rate reductions and extraordinary capital markets volatility, in the first half of 2025 Westwood has structured and placed nearly $400 million of Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities (AHFCABS) on behalf of affordable housing developers. This brings our total issuance to over $2.4 billion [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Notwithstanding a delay in the previously expected pace of Fed rate reductions and extraordinary capital markets volatility, in the first half of 2025 Westwood has structured and placed nearly $400 million of Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities (AHFCABS) on behalf of affordable housing developers. This brings our total issuance to over $2.4 billion since we developed the product in 2019. 
Affordable housing advocates across the country are expressing legitimate concerns about the potentially devastating impact of currently proposed reductions in HUD funding and the prospect of consolidation of existing rental assistance programs into a single state rental assistance block grant (SRAGB), or something similar.  Such changes, to the extent enacted into law, would further reduce the volume of, and possibly increase the cost of capital for, development for both new and rehab projects. <br /><br /> 

Accordingly, in this year’s AHFCABS transactions both rating agency and buyside underwriters have intensified their focus on diligence and tightening some documentation and reporting requirements. But they are simultaneously learning to identify the differences between high-quality, well-managed LIHTC portfolios and those that are more likely to be adversely impacted by anticipated affordable housing budget cuts.  
While a long way from being a certainty in terms of ultimate enactment, the principal concern about the impact of the so-called ‘skinny budget’ relates to properties relying substantially on Tenant Based Vouchers (TBVs). Particularly that housing authorities may make decisions that result in a disconnect between LIHTC rents and what the TBVs will provide, given that TBVs are subject to more variable funding mechanisms than those applicable to properties with long term project-based HAP contracts. Accordingly, portfolios that rely heavily on TBVs are being more carefully scrutinized.<br /><br /> 

That said, buyside interest in AHFCABS continues to outstrip our ability to produce this paper.  Accordingly, spreads are remaining relatively tight in light of such demand.<br /><br />  

As of this writing, the 10-year U.S. Treasury is trading at 4.37%, and the yield is down nearly 40bps since the beginning of the year. A1 rated AHFCABS have been pricing recently at spreads between 2.75 and 3.00 over the 10-year treasury. But we are also, finally, seeing some steepness return to the yield curve, so there is some cost benefit to AHFCABS transactions with lower than a 10-year average life. As the average life of the transactions we have been involved in issuing is generally between eight and ten years, this enables some additional cost savings for many of our clients that was not possible when the yield curve was flat. 
Having structured and placed 15 transactions, Westwood remains the market leader in the issuance of AHFCABS and continues to encourage affordable housing developers to consider employing the structure as a source of truly low-cost real estate acquisition and development capital.<br /><br /> 

As a reminder, the future flow passive contribution structure enables developers to tap into the value of their residual GP/SLP cash flow from annual property cash flow, development and management fees, and disposition and refinancing proceeds – over the full life of portfolio properties – to create a borrowing base. 
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Westwood Capital AHFCABS – Update Q4 2024</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2024/10/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-%e2%80%93-update-q4-2024/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2024/10/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-%e2%80%93-update-q4-2024/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:41:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=712</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the present environment of higher construction loan rates, reduced permanent loan advance rates and generally declining hard loan proceeds, tax credit transactions are facing challenges. At the time of this writing, national average construction loan rates are running between 9.0% and 9.5%.  Lenders are requiring higher underwritten construction period interest to be carried in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[In the present environment of higher construction loan rates, reduced permanent loan advance rates and generally declining hard loan proceeds, tax credit transactions are facing challenges. <br /><br /> 

At the time of this writing, national average construction loan rates are running between 9.0% and 9.5%.  Lenders are requiring higher underwritten construction period interest to be carried in development budgets, and investors are stress testing for construction cost overruns and delays as well as for operating expense escalation.<br /><br />   

While HUD 221(d)(4) loans can be an attractive solution, processing times are currently as long as one year; and, while life insurers offer some of the lowest available commercial construction loan rates, their programs are quite difficult to qualify for.  To fill the gaps, state, local, and other financing sources have become increasingly important – but are also being rapidly depleted. <br /><br />

In order to accommodate the lower permanent debt levels that new projects can support, Westwood is encouraging developers to consider our proprietary Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities (AHFCABs), as an alternative source of truly low-cost construction finance (see rate range below), in addition to its other uses.<br /><br /><br /> 

 

Our Solution: Become your own Construction Lender <br /><br />

The AHFCABs structure enables developers to tap into the value of their existing portfolio residual GP/SLP interests in annual operating distributions, development fees, and disposition and refinancing proceeds – over the full life of portfolio properties – to create a borrowing base, the proceeds of which can be used for any purpose, including construction finance.<br /><br />  

The structure effectively enables developers to establish their own internal ‘bank’ to fund ongoing construction finance needs (for any number of properties), interest reserves and other working capital positions during uncertain times (or anything, for that matter).  Proceeds can be warehoused and drawn as needed over a period of up to 12 months after the initial funding.  Proceeds devoted to construction finance can be “right-sized” to an organization-wide average outstanding construction loan balance and taken down in bulk at a much lower cost of funds than prevailing construction loan interest rates. There is no pressure to convert – the average term of AHFCABs financings is 8-10 years and rates are fixed throughout. <br /><br />

As a reminder, this investment-grade securitized debt is non-recourse, off-balance sheet, tax free and does not conflict with mortgage or HUD covenants nor require limited partner consents.<br /><br /> 

We remain optimistic that pricing of these facilities will not only stabilize but start decreasing by Q4 of 2023. Indeed, we believe that a transaction commenced today will price at approximately 250bps over the 10-year Treasury Note; likely more than 300bps lower than prevailing construction loan interest rates. ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Westwood Capital AHFCABS Update – Q3 2024</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2024/07/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-%e2%80%93-q3-2024/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2024/07/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-update-%e2%80%93-q3-2024/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jul 2024 18:51:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=725</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It now appears that the feared ‘sustained higher rate environment’ predicted by many notable economists of late has failed to materialize. Indeed, as of this writing, the 10-year U.S. Treasury is trading at 4.22% – down nearly 50 basis points from its 2024 peak in April, and approximately 70 bps from its post-COVID peak in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[It now appears that the feared ‘sustained higher rate environment’ predicted by many notable economists of late has failed to materialize.  Indeed, as of this writing, the 10-year U.S. Treasury is trading at 4.22% – down nearly 50 basis points from its 2024 peak in April, and approximately 70 bps from its post-COVID peak in October 2023.  Based on our most recent placements, spreads appear to be tightening accordingly, as investors contemplate the likelihood of at least one Fed rate cut later this year.<br /><br />  

With a lower 10-year and tighter spreads come lower household mortgage rates. We believe the U.S. owner-occupied housing market should begin to regain mobility in H2 2024, as homeowners who previously could not afford to move due to substantially higher mortgage rates begin to add inventory to the market.  This will finally deliver the holy grail of inflation at or near 2%, inasmuch as inflation in the carrying cost of residences is, as a practical matter, the only thing driving inflation above that level at this point. <br /><br />

Further treasury rate declines and spread compression will undoubtedly help restore the confidence of developers of both 4% and 9% LIHTC housing in their ability to responsibly capitalize their projects.<br /><br />   

To this end, Westwood continues to encourage affordable housing developers to consider employing its proprietary Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities (AHFCABS), as a source of truly low-cost real estate acquisition and development capital.  By utilizing this structure, developers are in essence borrowing against their own equity – but at investment grade bond rates.<br /><br />  

For those not yet familiar with it, the future flow passive contribution structure enables developers to tap into the value of their residual GP/SLP cash flow from annual property cash flow, development and management fees, and disposition and refinancing proceeds – over the full life of portfolio properties – to create a borrowing base, the proceeds of which can be used for any purpose. <br /><br /> 

Because the execution of these transactions often requires four to six months from inception to closing, now is an advantageous time to commence execution of an AHFCABS transaction, in anticipation of considerably improved market conditions during the course of the second half of this year. <br /><br /> ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Westwood Capital AHFCABS – Update Q3 2024</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2024/07/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-%e2%80%93-update-q3-2024/</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/2024/07/westwood-capital-ahfcabs-%e2%80%93-update-q3-2024/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Jul 2024 18:44:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=717</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities issuance now exceeds $2.5B and, fueled by the Fed’s recent rate cut, is expected to exceed $3B in issuance early in Q1 2025. Accordingly, Westwood Capital continues to encourage affordable housing developers to consider employing its proprietary Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities (AHFCABS), as a source [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities issuance now exceeds $2.5B and, fueled by the Fed’s recent rate cut, is expected to exceed $3B in issuance early in Q1 2025.  Accordingly, Westwood Capital continues to encourage affordable housing developers to consider employing its proprietary Affordable Housing Future Flow Contributive Asset-Backed Securities (AHFCABS), as a source of truly low-cost real estate acquisition and development capital.   
When we predicted a Q3 rate cut in our Q2 2024 update, we were not expecting the Fed to kick things off with a 50bps reduction in the policy rate, at least not so soon.  Such larger-than-usual reductions are generally an admission of a policy error in scale or timing, and this one was no different.  Recession is not an option for the Powell-led Federal Open Markets Committee. While today the 10-year U.S. Treasury is trading at 3.79%, after backing up from 3.60% immediately prior the Fed’s announcement last week (sell on the news) – the yield down nearly 100bps since it’s 2024 peak in April. 
Chairman Powell was clear that this ‘recalibration’ was meant to account for the sharp decline in inflation since 2023 and to stay ahead of a potentially weakening job market – it now seems clear to most observers that the Fed’s principal aim is to avoid unnecessarily higher unemployment in order to reach its ‘holy grail’ 2.0% inflation target.  Indeed, at 2.2%, the current PCE inflation rate is the lowest it has been since 2020. 
Moreover, in addition to last month’s cut, Fed policymakers made clear their expectations that the benchmark rate would fall by yet another half of a percentage point by the end of 2024, followed by a full percentage point in 2025 and another half point in 2026.  As a reminder, AHFCABS are priced at a spread over the 10-year treasury, and we expect that spread to tighten materially in the coming months. 
While the Fed got caught with almost 24 months of very high inflation challenging its earlier expectations that the pandemic-related price spikes would be “transitory,” in the end they were correct -if you ignore the passage of time. There is little doubt now that all of the inputs to the high inflation of late 2021-2023 were pandemic-related, though longer lasting than anticipated three years ago. 
Westwood is now forecasting that the 10-year yield will stabilize this cycle in a range of 3.00% to 3.25%, beginning by the end of Q2 2025.  We anticipate that mortgage rates will continue to soften as rates fall, spreads tighten, economic and labor data continue to weaken, and the Fed becomes more dovish in its willingness to do more to help the U.S. stay out of recession.  And while no one is rooting for it, a stock market correction at this point in the cycle would further benefit borrowers to the extent that it triggers a flight to safety into bonds.   
For those not yet familiar with it, the future flow passive contribution structure enables developers to tap into the value of their residual GP/SLP cash flow from annual property cash flow, development and management fees, and disposition and refinancing proceeds – over the full life of portfolio properties – to create a borrowing base, the proceeds of which can be used for any purpose. By utilizing this structure, developers are in essence borrowing against their own equity – but at investment grade bond rates.   
Because the execution of these transactions often requires four to six months, or more, from inception to closing, now is an advantageous time to commence execution of an AHFCABS transaction, in anticipation of considerably improved market conditions in Q4 2024, and continuing well into 2025 and 2026.   
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		<title>The 2017 Case for Aggressive Fiscal Spending on Infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/The-Case-for-Aggressive-Fiscal-Spending-on-Infrastructure-in-2017.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/The-Case-for-Aggressive-Fiscal-Spending-on-Infrastructure-in-2017.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Mar 2017 16:37:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<title>The Only Graph Needed to Explain the New Year’s Dive of 2016: Larry Summers Sort-of Gets it, the Fed Doesn’t Seem to Get it, and the Media Seems Hardly Aware of it</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/The-Only-Graph-Needed-to-Explain-the-New-Year’s-Dive-of-2016-Alpert-010916-Published1.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/The-Only-Graph-Needed-to-Explain-the-New-Year’s-Dive-of-2016-Alpert-010916-Published1.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2016 10:08:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=527</guid>
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		<title>Applying the Brakes—The Four Long and Winding Monetary Policy Routes Available to the Federal Reserve in “Normalizing” U.S. Interest Rates</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Applying-the-Brakes-Fed-Policy-Options-Alpert-121515.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Applying-the-Brakes-Fed-Policy-Options-Alpert-121515.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Dec 2015 21:28:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=519</guid>
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		<title>The Exaggerated Recovery in U.S. Housing Prices</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/The-Exaggerated-Recovery-in-US-Housing-Prices-Alpert-030415.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/The-Exaggerated-Recovery-in-US-Housing-Prices-Alpert-030415.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Mar 2015 02:06:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=504</guid>
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		<title>No Economy is an Island: Challenging the United States Economic Decoupling Meme</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/No-Economy-is-an-Island-Alpert-0215151.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/No-Economy-is-an-Island-Alpert-0215151.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2015 17:59:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=497</guid>
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		<title>Why the Fed is Flummoxed by the U.S. Labor Market: A New Analysis of Employment in the Era of Secular Stagnation and Global Oversupply</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Why-the-Fed-is-Flummoxed-by-the-U.S.-Labor-Market-Alpert-111214.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Why-the-Fed-is-Flummoxed-by-the-U.S.-Labor-Market-Alpert-111214.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Nov 2014 17:21:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=493</guid>
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		<title>The Wizard of Jobs: How the U.S. Could Generate Over 1.3 Million Private Sector Jobs in Six Months and Still be in a Slump</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/The-Wizard-of-Jobs-2014-First-Half-Jobs-Report-Card-Alpert-071517.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/The-Wizard-of-Jobs-2014-First-Half-Jobs-Report-Card-Alpert-071517.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Jul 2014 22:09:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=470</guid>
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		<title>Closing Dinner Remarks of Daniel Alpert at the 2014 Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Minksy-Summer-Seminar-Closing-Dinner-Remarks-Alpert-062114.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Minksy-Summer-Seminar-Closing-Dinner-Remarks-Alpert-062114.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jun 2014 17:13:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=465</guid>
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		<title>The Devil’s in the Data: It Appears as if No One Knows What to Make of the U.S. Economy, and Here’s Why</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/The-Devils-in-the-Data-Alpert-052014.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/The-Devils-in-the-Data-Alpert-052014.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 May 2014 16:54:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=461</guid>
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		<title>2013 U.S. Jobs Report Card: After All Is Said and Done, More Was Said than Done</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2013-US-Jobs-Report-Card-Alpert-011314.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2013-US-Jobs-Report-Card-Alpert-011314.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jan 2014 14:32:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=458</guid>
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		<title>The New Sick-onomy? Examining the Entrails of the U.S. Employment Situation</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/The-New-Sick-onomy-Examining-the-Entrails-of-the-U.S-Employment-Situation-Alpert-0724131.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/The-New-Sick-onomy-Examining-the-Entrails-of-the-U.S-Employment-Situation-Alpert-0724131.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jul 2013 20:55:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=387</guid>
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		<title>Deconstructing the Fereral Reserve&#8217;s 2012 Comprehensive</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deconstructing-the-Federal-Reserves-2012-Comprehensive-Capital-Analysis-and-Review-Alpert-2012.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Deconstructing-the-Federal-Reserves-2012-Comprehensive-Capital-Analysis-and-Review-Alpert-2012.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Mar 2012 17:02:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=364</guid>
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		<title>The New Reality Show</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/The-New-Reality-Show-Economists-of-the-Ivory-Tower-Alpert-012412.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/The-New-Reality-Show-Economists-of-the-Ivory-Tower-Alpert-012412.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2012 16:04:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=359</guid>
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		<title>On Sticky Wages</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/On-Sticky-Wages-Alpert-1213111.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/On-Sticky-Wages-Alpert-1213111.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 16:58:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=319</guid>
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		<title>Back to the Future&#8230;Again</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Back-to-the-Future-Again-080911.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Back-to-the-Future-Again-080911.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2011 17:07:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=285</guid>
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		<title>Waging War on Wages</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Waging-War-on-Wages-Alpert-071311.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Waging-War-on-Wages-Alpert-071311.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Jul 2011 16:54:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=277</guid>
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		<title>The Flight of the Doves</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/The-Flight-of-the-Doves-Alpert-060911.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/The-Flight-of-the-Doves-Alpert-060911.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jun 2011 15:09:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=274</guid>
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		<title>This is Your Debt&#8230;.This is Your Income Distribution on Debt</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/This-is-Your-Debt-This-is-Your-Income-Distribution-on-Debt-Alpert-041411.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/This-is-Your-Debt-This-is-Your-Income-Distribution-on-Debt-Alpert-041411.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Apr 2011 15:24:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=269</guid>
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		<title>Beyond the Double-Dip in Home Prices</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/beyondthedoubleddipinhomeprices020711.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/beyondthedoubleddipinhomeprices020711.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Feb 2011 12:41:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=191</guid>
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		<title>Open Letter to Regulators on Residential Mortgage Loan Securitization and Servicing Standards</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/securitizationstandardsletterfinal122110.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/securitizationstandardsletterfinal122110.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Dec 2010 12:54:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=193</guid>
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		<title>Retail Sales as the Echoes of a Pre-Crisis Habit</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/retailsalesasechoesofaprecrisishabit.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/retailsalesasechoesofaprecrisishabit.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Nov 2010 12:56:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.westwoodcapital.com/?p=196</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
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		<title>The Bailout Trade Meets the Bernanke Put</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/thebailouttrademeetsthebernankeput100710.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/thebailouttrademeetsthebernankeput100710.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Oct 2010 11:56:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

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		<title>Credit Markets Don’t Lie But They Do Confuse</title>
		<link>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/creditmarketsdontliebuttheydoconfuse082410.pdf</link>
		<comments>http://www.westwoodcapital.com/opinion/images/stories/in-print-docs/creditmarketsdontliebuttheydoconfuse082410.pdf#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Aug 2010 11:57:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Market Commentary]]></category>

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